Orlando Magic at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints15
- Paolo BancheroAssists4
- Franz WagnerRebounds8
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints27
- Paul GeorgeAssists7
- Ivica ZubacRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–118
- Q49.0Caleb Houstan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)102–118
- Q416.0Moussa Diabate traveling99–118
- Q440.0Goga Bitadze makes free throw 2 of 299–118
- Q440.0Magic offensive team rebound98–118
- Q440.0Goga Bitadze misses free throw 1 of 298–118
- Q440.0Norman Powell personal foul98–118
- Q446.1Moussa Diabate makes two point shot98–118
- Q446.1Moussa Diabate offensive rebound98–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:21Gary Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 33 – 25 LAC · ORL 47% → 55% +8ORL 47% → 55%+8 pts
- Q22:22Paolo Banchero makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 41 – 36 LAC · ORL 42% → 50% +8ORL 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q22:04Paul George makes 27-foot three pointerORL 41 – 39 LAC · LAC 50% → 58% +8LAC 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q21:29Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 46 – 39 LAC · ORL 48% → 56% +9ORL 48% → 56%+9 pts
- Q35:50Paul George makes 27-foot three point jumperORL 59 – 66 LAC · LAC 74% → 81% +8LAC 74% → 81%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5
- LAC 69%
- Fair odds
- LAC -216
- ORL +216 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 109.1 – 115.0 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −17 | +38 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +142 Elo | LAC 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 68.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 121.35th of 30 |
| 1st of 3096.3 | Points allowed | 104.75th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+10.7 | Margin | +16.71st of 30 |
| 15th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 118.23rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3098.0 | Defense rating | 102.03rd of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.4 | Pace | 102.216th of 30 |
| 11th of 281–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.