Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Gary HarrisPoints17
- Markelle FultzAssists8
- Franz WagnerRebounds8
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints28
- D'Angelo RussellAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–106
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound103–106
- Q41.0Jalen Suggs misses 26-foot three point shot103–106
- Q44.0Jalen Suggs offensive rebound103–106
- Q46.1LeBron James blocks Franz Wagner 's 29-foot three point pullup jump shot103–106
- Q48.0Christian Wood enters the game for D'Angelo Russell103–106
- Q48.0Magic Full timeout103–106
- Q48.0D'Angelo Russell makes free throw 2 of 2103–106
- Q48.0D'Angelo Russell makes free throw 1 of 2103–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:04D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot step back jumpshotORL 96 – 94 LAL · LAL 17% → 32% +15LAL 17% → 32%+15 pts
- Q42:27LeBron James makes 28-foot step back jumpshotORL 100 – 101 LAL · LAL 29% → 55% +26LAL 29% → 55%+26 pts
- Q42:05Jalen Suggs makes 24-foot three point jumper (Markelle Fultz assists)ORL 103 – 101 LAL · ORL 44% → 72% +29ORL 44% → 72%+29 pts
- Q41:43D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Christian Wood assists)ORL 103 – 104 LAL · LAL 26% → 58% +31LAL 26% → 58%+31 pts
- Q48.0D'Angelo Russell makes free throw 1 of 2ORL 103 – 105 LAL · LAL 83% → 97% +14LAL 83% → 97%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5
- ORL 68%
- Fair odds
- ORL -197
- LAL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 115.1 – 109.9 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −11 | −113 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +134 Elo | ORL 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 66.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30109.0 | Points scored | 111.315th of 30 |
| 1st of 3091.5 | Points allowed | 115.319th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+17.5 | Margin | −4.019th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 105.020th of 30 |
| 1st of 3094.4 | Defense rating | 108.713th of 30 |
| 30th of 3096.7 | Pace | 102.712th of 30 |
| 1st of 281–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−113 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.