Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints21
- Marcus SmartAssists6
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds8
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints23
- Talen Horton-TuckerAssists7
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–133
- Q410.1Collin Sexton makes finger roll layup109–133
- Q435.0Vince Williams Jr. makes layup (Jacob Gilyard assists)109–131
- Q439.1Omer Yurtseven turnover107–131
- Q439.1Omer Yurtseven offensive foul107–131
- Q442.0Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound107–131
- Q443.0Kenneth Lofton Jr. misses free throw 1 of 1107–131
- Q443.0Omer Yurtseven shooting foul107–131
- Q443.0Kenneth Lofton Jr. makes driving layup (Jacob Gilyard assists)107–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:43Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)MEM 0 – 4 UTAH · UTAH 58% → 64% +6UTAH 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q18:41Ziaire Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)MEM 7 – 7 UTAH · MEM 38% → 44% +6MEM 38% → 44%+6 pts
- Q17:36John Collins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)MEM 9 – 12 UTAH · UTAH 56% → 62% +6UTAH 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q17:02Jordan Clarkson makes 23-foot three point jumperMEM 9 – 15 UTAH · UTAH 62% → 69% +6UTAH 62% → 69%+6 pts
- Q15:16Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)MEM 12 – 22 UTAH · UTAH 71% → 76% +6UTAH 71% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -1.5
- UTAH 56%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -129
- MEM +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 112.3 – 114.3 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −14 | −15 | MEM: Missing Ja Morant −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +39 Elo | UTAH 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30106.0 | Points scored | 110.017th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 121.025th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.3 | Margin | −11.029th of 30 |
| 29th of 30101.9 | Offense rating | 109.012th of 30 |
| 18th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 120.030th of 30 |
| 7th of 30104.0 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 20th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−14 Elo- Ja Morant suspended by league−1 Elo
Jazz
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.