Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints32
- Jrue HolidayAssists10
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints27
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists6
- Dorian Finney-SmithRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–114
- Q418.0Cam Thomas makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot124–114
- Q434.1Jaylen Brown makes 35-foot three pointer124–112
- Q457.0Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three pointer (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)121–112
- Q41:05Jaylen Brown makes free throw 2 of 2121–109
- Q41:05Payton Pritchard enters the game for Al Horford120–109
- Q41:05Day'Ron Sharpe enters the game for Spencer Dinwiddie120–109
- Q41:05Jalen Wilson enters the game for Mikal Bridges120–109
- Q41:05Armoni Brooks enters the game for Royce O'Neale120–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:47Dennis Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)BOS 96 – 95 BKN · BKN 28% → 42% +14BKN 28% → 42%+14 pts
- Q47:27Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointer (Oshae Brissett assists)BOS 99 – 95 BKN · BOS 58% → 73% +15BOS 58% → 73%+15 pts
- Q47:13Dennis Smith Jr. makes driving layup (Cam Thomas assists)BOS 99 – 97 BKN · BKN 27% → 37% +10BKN 27% → 37%+10 pts
- Q46:57Luke Kornet makes dunkBOS 101 – 97 BKN · BOS 63% → 73% +10BOS 63% → 73%+10 pts
- Q46:31Jrue Holiday makes 27-foot three pointerBOS 104 – 97 BKN · BOS 74% → 85% +12BOS 74% → 85%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3
- BOS 61%
- Fair odds
- BOS -133
- BKN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 115.6 – 113.4 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +43 | +27 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +78 Elo | BOS 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30127.0 | Points scored | 116.88th of 30 |
| 7th of 30106.5 | Points allowed | 114.417th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+20.5 | Margin | +2.411th of 30 |
| 1st of 30123.7 | Offense rating | 114.86th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.7 | Defense rating | 112.522nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.5 | Pace | 101.718th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 0–127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.