Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Rui HachimuraPoints24
- D'Angelo RussellAssists4
- Rui HachimuraRebounds8
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints28
- Fred VanVleetAssists10
- Tari EasonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–128
- Q412.1Boban Marjanovic defensive rebound94–128
- Q413.0Colin Castleton misses 10-foot step back jumpshot94–128
- Q424.1shot clock turnover94–128
- Q448.0Boban Marjanovic defensive rebound94–128
- Q448.1D'Moi Hodge misses free throw 2 of 294–128
- Q448.1D'Moi Hodge makes free throw 1 of 294–128
- Q448.1Boban Marjanovic shooting foul93–128
- Q41:03Boban Marjanovic makes 2-foot driving dunk93–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:33Alperen Sengun makes two point shotLAL 0 – 2 HOU · HOU 69% → 73% +4HOU 69% → 73%+4 pts
- Q110:36Jalen Green makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot (Fred VanVleet assists)LAL 0 – 4 HOU · HOU 72% → 76% +3HOU 72% → 76%+3 pts
- Q18:24Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)LAL 2 – 11 HOU · HOU 79% → 83% +4HOU 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q17:17Jalen Green makes 26-foot three pointer (Fred VanVleet assists)LAL 7 – 16 HOU · HOU 79% → 83% +4HOU 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q132.1Tari Eason makes three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)LAL 18 – 31 HOU · HOU 85% → 89% +4HOU 85% → 89%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5.5
- HOU 70%
- Fair odds
- HOU -223
- LAL +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 109.6 – 115.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −88 | +17 | LAL: Missing Anthony Davis −17 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +151 Elo | HOU 70.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 69.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.1 | Points scored | 110.019th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 108.89th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−3.4 | Margin | +1.213th of 30 |
| 26th of 30106.1 | Offense rating | 110.514th of 30 |
| 14th of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 109.415th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.9 | Pace | 97.730th of 30 |
| 25th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 3–18th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−88 Elo- Anthony Davis left abductor−17 Elo
Rockets
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.