Los Angeles Lakers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints28
- LeBron JamesAssists5
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints26
- Paolo BancheroAssists10
- Goga BitadzeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–120
- Q413.1Max Christie defensive rebound101–120
- Q413.1Jett Howard misses tip shot101–120
- Q413.1Jett Howard offensive rebound101–120
- Q417.0Admiral Schofield misses 26-foot three point jumper101–120
- Q437.1Colin Castleton makes layup101–120
- Q459.1Admiral Schofield makes 1-foot dunk (Chuma Okeke assists)99–120
- Q41:00Chuma Okeke offensive rebound99–118
- Q41:03Jett Howard misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot99–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:16LeBron James makes 23-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 5 – 4 ORL · LAL 33% → 39% +6LAL 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q18:55D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Anthony Davis assists)LAL 12 – 8 ORL · LAL 39% → 45% +6LAL 39% → 45%+6 pts
- Q16:11Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Jalen Suggs assists)LAL 14 – 20 ORL · ORL 69% → 75% +6ORL 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q14:41Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 20 – 26 ORL · ORL 69% → 75% +6ORL 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q29:53Austin Reaves makes 26-foot step back jumpshotLAL 35 – 41 ORL · LAL 20% → 25% +6LAL 20% → 25%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3.5
- ORL 64%
- Fair odds
- ORL -176
- LAL +176 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 110.3 – 114.6 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −64 | −8 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | −24 | LAL crossed 3 time zones and ORL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +103 Elo | ORL 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 63.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 107.623rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 104.03rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +3.69th of 30 |
| 18th of 30107.4 | Offense rating | 106.022nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 102.42nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.9 | Pace | 101.620th of 30 |
| 20th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 1–0 ORL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.