LA Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints38
- Russell WestbrookAssists8
- Russell WestbrookRebounds11
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints35
- LeBron JamesAssists7
- LeBron JamesRebounds12
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game125–130
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime125–130
- OT0.0LeBron James defensive rebound125–130
- OT0.1Ivica Zubac misses tip shot125–130
- OT0.1Ivica Zubac offensive rebound125–130
- OT3.1Russell Westbrook misses driving layup125–130
- OT9.1Christian Wood makes dunk125–130
- OT9.1Christian Wood offensive rebound125–128
- OT9.1Cam Reddish misses 23-foot three point jumper125–128
- OT30.0LeBron James defensive rebound125–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q424.1Paul George makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 114 – 115 LAL · LAC 1% → 29% +28LAC 1% → 29%+28 pts
- Q417.0Paul George makes free throw 2 of 3LAC 116 – 117 LAL · LAC 9% → 26% +16LAC 9% → 26%+16 pts
- Q417.0Paul George makes free throw 3 of 3LAC 117 – 117 LAL · LAC 26% → 51% +25LAC 26% → 51%+25 pts
- OT1:03Austin Reaves makes 14-foot pullup jump shotLAC 122 – 126 LAL · LAL 75% → 91% +17LAL 75% → 91%+17 pts
- OT59.0Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Russell Westbrook assists)LAC 125 – 126 LAL · LAC 8% → 37% +29LAC 8% → 37%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3.5
- LAC 63%
- Fair odds
- LAC -149
- LAL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 114.5 – 111.5 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +51 | −91 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +95 Elo | LAC 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 59.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.5 | Points scored | 110.018th of 30 |
| 5th of 30104.0 | Points allowed | 112.317th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+16.5 | Margin | −2.318th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 105.021st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30100.7 | Defense rating | 107.113th of 30 |
| 10th of 30103.0 | Pace | 102.218th of 30 |
| 20th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−91 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.