Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints30
- Austin ReavesAssists9
- Austin ReavesRebounds10
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints28
- Bam AdebayoAssists10
- Bam AdebayoRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–108
- Q42.1Jimmy Butler defensive rebound107–108
- Q44.0Cam Reddish misses 21-foot jumper107–108
- Q48.2Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Tyler Herro107–108
- Q48.2Lakers Full timeout107–108
- Q48.2Bam Adebayo traveling107–108
- Q428.1Josh Richardson defensive rebound107–108
- Q430.2Austin Reaves misses 25-foot three point jumper107–108
- Q448.1Taurean Prince defensive rebound107–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:08Jimmy Butler makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)LAL 71 – 75 MIA · MIA 61% → 70% +9MIA 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q36:24Austin Reaves makes 28-foot three pointerLAL 74 – 75 MIA · LAL 30% → 39% +9LAL 30% → 39%+9 pts
- Q45:25Tyler Herro makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)LAL 95 – 103 MIA · MIA 81% → 91% +10MIA 81% → 91%+10 pts
- Q43:10Christian Wood makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 104 – 108 MIA · LAL 7% → 19% +12LAL 7% → 19%+12 pts
- Q42:39LeBron James makes driving layupLAL 106 – 108 MIA · LAL 17% → 30% +13LAL 17% → 30%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3
- MIA 62%
- Fair odds
- MIA -168
- LAL +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 111.0 – 114.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −72 | +1 | LAL: Missing Jalen Hood-Schifino −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +82 Elo | MIA 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 62.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 107.325th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 112.015th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.8 | Margin | −4.723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30105.9 | Offense rating | 106.720th of 30 |
| 15th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 111.321st of 30 |
| 16th of 30102.1 | Pace | 100.425th of 30 |
| 23rd of 300–3 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−72 Elo- Jalen Hood-Schifino right knee injury−1 Elo
Heat
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.