Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints20
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Isaiah StewartRebounds10
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints28
- Evan MobleyAssists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–108
- Q413.0Kevin Knox II makes dunk (Jaden Ivey assists)100–108
- Q415.1James Wiseman defensive rebound98–108
- Q418.1Craig Porter misses driving floating jump shot98–108
- Q438.2Marcus Sasser makes free throw 2 of 298–108
- Q438.2Damian Jones enters the game for Jarrett Allen97–108
- Q438.2Emoni Bates enters the game for Darius Garland97–108
- Q438.2Tristan Thompson enters the game for Evan Mobley97–108
- Q438.2Craig Porter enters the game for Caris LeVert97–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:09Kevin Knox II makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Stewart assists)DET 64 – 71 CLE · DET 16% → 24% +7DET 16% → 24%+7 pts
- Q34:34Alec Burks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 67 – 73 CLE · DET 18% → 26% +8DET 18% → 26%+8 pts
- Q31:56Darius Garland makes 25-foot step back jumpshotDET 71 – 78 CLE · CLE 69% → 78% +9CLE 69% → 78%+9 pts
- Q49:46Jarrett Allen makes 1-foot layup (Craig Porter assists)DET 77 – 84 CLE · CLE 74% → 81% +7CLE 74% → 81%+7 pts
- Q48:53Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter assists)DET 77 – 87 CLE · CLE 82% → 90% +8CLE 82% → 90%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2.5
- CLE 59%
- Fair odds
- CLE -133
- DET +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 111.9 – 114.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −14 | +2 | DET: Missing Jalen Duren −1, Isaiah Livers −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CLE: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | CLE crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +63 Elo | CLE 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.6 | Points scored | 110.524th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 112.213th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.6 | Margin | −1.619th of 30 |
| 21st of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 109.220th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 110.816th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.918th of 30 |
| 28th of 291–9 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 29 |
| 25th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 1–323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−14 Elo- Jalen Duren right ankle injury−1 Elo
- Isaiah Livers left ankle sprain−1 Elo
Cavaliers
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.