Cleveland Cavaliers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints22
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints28
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–132
- Q47.1Tristan Thompson makes 2-foot layup (Craig Porter assists)120–132
- Q420.1Craig Porter defensive rebound118–132
- Q423.1JaVale McGee misses 15-foot hook shot118–132
- Q437.1Georges Niang makes 29-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter assists)118–132
- Q446.1Craig Porter defensive rebound115–132
- Q450.1Jordan Ford misses 24-foot three point jumper115–132
- Q41:14Colby Jones enters the game for Keegan Murray115–132
- Q41:14Keon Ellis enters the game for Domantas Sabonis115–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:44De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)CLE 56 – 64 SAC · SAC 65% → 73% +7SAC 65% → 73%+7 pts
- Q311:25Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumperCLE 63 – 68 SAC · CLE 26% → 34% +8CLE 26% → 34%+8 pts
- Q311:06Kevin Huerter makes 28-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)CLE 63 – 71 SAC · SAC 66% → 74% +8SAC 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q38:44Max Strus makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 71 – 77 SAC · CLE 23% → 30% +8CLE 23% → 30%+8 pts
- Q37:38Kevin Huerter makes 27-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)CLE 73 – 82 SAC · SAC 70% → 78% +8SAC 70% → 78%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -0.5
- SAC 51%
- Fair odds
- SAC -110
- CLE +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 112.1 – 112.8 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | +9 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +9 Elo | SAC 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 52.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.7 | Points scored | 111.118th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 113.817th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−2.2 | Margin | −2.620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30107.3 | Offense rating | 107.224th of 30 |
| 12th of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 109.816th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.121st of 30 |
| 5th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 3–19th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.