Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints38
- Skylar MaysAssists11
- Deandre AytonRebounds10
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints27
- Malik MonkAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game118–121
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime118–121
- OT4.1Kessler Edwards defensive rebound118–121
- OT4.1Jerami Grant misses 26-foot three point jumper118–121
- OT6.0Toumani Camara offensive rebound118–121
- OT9.1Jerami Grant misses 25-foot three point jumper118–121
- OT13.0Skylar Mays enters the game for Justin Minaya118–121
- OT13.0Kevin Huerter enters the game for Domantas Sabonis118–121
- OT13.0Chris Duarte enters the game for Malik Monk118–121
- OT13.0Trail Blazers Full timeout118–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48.1Malik Monk makes free throw 2 of 2POR 111 – 111 SAC · SAC 16% → 50% +34SAC 16% → 50%+34 pts
- OT4:48Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Skylar Mays assists)POR 114 – 111 SAC · POR 49% → 68% +19POR 49% → 68%+19 pts
- OT4:29Davion Mitchell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)POR 114 – 114 SAC · SAC 31% → 51% +20SAC 31% → 51%+20 pts
- OT2:19Harrison Barnes makes 3-foot two point shot (Davion Mitchell assists)POR 116 – 118 SAC · SAC 51% → 69% +18SAC 51% → 69%+18 pts
- OT1:48Matisse Thybulle makes layupPOR 118 – 118 SAC · POR 29% → 49% +20POR 29% → 49%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -0.5
- SAC 53%
- Fair odds
- SAC -113
- POR +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 111.5 – 112.4 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | −13 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +18 Elo | SAC 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.3 | Points scored | 110.519th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 115.720th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.4 | Margin | −5.222nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30102.0 | Offense rating | 107.919th of 30 |
| 9th of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 112.922nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.9 | Pace | 100.823rd of 30 |
| 8th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.