Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints30
- Desmond BaneAssists5
- Bismack BiyomboRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints27
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists11
- Deandre AytonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–100
- Q41.1shot clock turnover112–100
- Q423.1Marcus Smart defensive rebound112–100
- Q427.0Bismack Biyombo blocks Malcolm Brogdon 's 2-foot two point shot112–100
- Q438.0Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1112–100
- Q438.0Deandre Ayton shooting foul111–100
- Q438.0Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 10-foot two point shot111–100
- Q457.0Desmond Bane defensive rebound109–100
- Q457.0Toumani Camara misses 23-foot three point jumper109–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:25Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)MEM 82 – 84 POR · POR 52% → 64% +12POR 52% → 64%+12 pts
- Q44:56Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three pointerMEM 98 – 100 POR · MEM 18% → 34% +16MEM 18% → 34%+16 pts
- Q44:17Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 1-foot driving dunk (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 100 – 100 POR · MEM 33% → 47% +13MEM 33% → 47%+13 pts
- Q43:10Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 3-foot two point shotMEM 102 – 100 POR · MEM 47% → 63% +16MEM 47% → 63%+16 pts
- Q42:27Bismack Biyombo makes dunk (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 104 – 100 POR · MEM 65% → 80% +15MEM 65% → 80%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Trail Blazers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
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- Pre-line forecast
- POR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3.5
- POR 64%
- Fair odds
- POR -157
- MEM +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 110.4 – 113.9 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −2 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +98 Elo | POR 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30107.7 | Points scored | 105.028th of 30 |
| 24th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 109.39th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.8 | Margin | −4.322nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30101.4 | Offense rating | 102.329th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 106.69th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.3 | Pace | 100.922nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 300–3 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–1 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.