Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints33
- Desmond BaneAssists7
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds10
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints26
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists10
- Deandre AytonRebounds12
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game113–115
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime113–115
- OT0.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot113–115
- OT2.0Jerami Grant lost ball turnover (Xavier Tillman steals)110–115
- OT6.1David Roddy enters the game for Luke Kennard110–115
- OT6.1Trail Blazers Full timeout110–115
- OT6.1Marcus Smart makes driving layup110–115
- OT11.1Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2108–115
- OT11.1Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 1 of 2108–114
- OT11.1Desmond Bane personal take foul108–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48.1Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2MEM 102 – 102 POR · POR 17% → 51% +34POR 17% → 51%+34 pts
- OT3:01Deandre Ayton makes 1-foot hook shotMEM 102 – 104 POR · POR 53% → 68% +16POR 53% → 68%+16 pts
- OT1:29Jaren Jackson Jr. makes driving layup (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 106 – 106 POR · MEM 26% → 48% +22MEM 26% → 48%+22 pts
- OT1:17Shaedon Sharpe makes 26-foot step back jumpshotMEM 106 – 109 POR · POR 52% → 84% +32POR 52% → 84%+32 pts
- OT39.1Jerami Grant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)MEM 108 – 112 POR · POR 68% → 97% +28POR 68% → 97%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Trail Blazers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3.5
- POR 63%
- Fair odds
- POR -151
- MEM +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 110.4 – 113.5 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | −5 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +91 Elo | POR 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30106.6 | Points scored | 103.030th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 108.68th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.4 | Margin | −5.624th of 30 |
| 30th of 30101.4 | Offense rating | 102.129th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 107.711th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.1 | Pace | 100.922nd of 30 |
| 20th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 0–126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.