Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Caris LeVertPoints29
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Max StrusRebounds7
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints43
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–128
- Q423.05 second violation120–128
- Q423.0Josh Giddey enters the game for Aaron Wiggins120–128
- Q423.0Darius Garland enters the game for Dean Wade120–128
- Q423.0Max Strus enters the game for Jarrett Allen120–128
- Q423.0Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Chet Holmgren120–128
- Q423.0Cavaliers Full timeout120–128
- Q423.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2120–128
- Q423.0Cason Wallace enters the game for Josh Giddey120–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:07Luguentz Dort makes 27-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CLE 67 – 76 OKC · OKC 75% → 82% +7OKC 75% → 82%+7 pts
- Q47:05Jaylin Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)CLE 100 – 108 OKC · OKC 78% → 88% +10OKC 78% → 88%+10 pts
- Q45:30Jalen Williams makes 11-foot step back jumpshot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)CLE 104 – 110 OKC · OKC 76% → 85% +8OKC 76% → 85%+8 pts
- Q44:57Chet Holmgren makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jalen Williams assists)CLE 106 – 112 OKC · OKC 77% → 86% +9OKC 77% → 86%+9 pts
- Q44:00Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot step back jumpshotCLE 108 – 117 OKC · OKC 88% → 96% +8OKC 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 64%
- Fair odds
- OKC -159
- CLE +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 111.6 – 115.2 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | +50 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +98 Elo | OKC 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 117.47th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 116.723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−2.9 | Margin | +0.714th of 30 |
| 27th of 30105.4 | Offense rating | 112.710th of 30 |
| 11th of 30108.3 | Defense rating | 112.119th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.3 | Pace | 104.14th of 30 |
| 5th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 OKC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.