Atlanta Hawks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints29
- Trae YoungAssists11
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds14
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–126
- Q47.0Trae Young makes two point shot (Jalen Johnson assists)117–126
- Q412.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes finger roll layup115–126
- Q412.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound115–124
- Q414.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses free throw 2 of 2115–124
- Q414.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2115–124
- Q414.0Dejounte Murray personal take foul115–123
- Q417.1Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)115–123
- Q423.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2112–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:50Chet Holmgren makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)ATL 36 – 44 OKC · OKC 53% → 69% +15OKC 53% → 69%+15 pts
- Q24:30De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 39 – 41 OKC · ATL 31% → 47% +15ATL 31% → 47%+15 pts
- Q23:59Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotATL 39 – 47 OKC · OKC 53% → 69% +16OKC 53% → 69%+16 pts
- Q311:39Trae Young makes 25-foot three pointerATL 53 – 58 OKC · ATL 29% → 37% +8ATL 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q39:00Dejounte Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 58 – 64 OKC · ATL 25% → 33% +8ATL 25% → 33%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- ATL 55%
- Fair odds
- ATL -112
- OKC +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.1 – 115.3 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +85 | +40 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +37 Elo | ATL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.8 | Points scored | 116.012th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 116.723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+7.7 | Margin | −0.715th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.4 | Offense rating | 111.711th of 30 |
| 19th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 112.422nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.6 | Pace | 103.85th of 30 |
| 7th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–326th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.