Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds7
Kings- Kevin HuerterPoints28
- Domantas SabonisAssists13
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–105
- Q40.0Domantas Sabonis offensive rebound98–105
- Q40.0Harrison Barnes misses 24-foot three point jumper98–105
- Q415.0Harrison Barnes offensive rebound98–105
- Q417.1Malik Monk misses 19-foot two point shot98–105
- Q443.1Cason Wallace enters the game for Josh Giddey98–105
- Q443.1Harrison Barnes enters the game for Davion Mitchell98–105
- Q443.1Domantas Sabonis enters the game for Keon Ellis98–105
- Q443.1Kings Full timeout98–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q331.1Keegan Murray makes two point shotOKC 65 – 71 SAC · SAC 54% → 70% +15SAC 54% → 70%+15 pts
- Q35.1Malik Monk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)OKC 67 – 75 SAC · SAC 66% → 77% +10SAC 66% → 77%+10 pts
- Q30.1Luguentz Dort makes 24-foot three pointer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 70 – 75 SAC · OKC 23% → 34% +11OKC 23% → 34%+11 pts
- Q411:31Keegan Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)OKC 70 – 78 SAC · SAC 67% → 78% +11SAC 67% → 78%+11 pts
- Q410:32Sasha Vezenkov makes 24-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)OKC 73 – 81 SAC · SAC 68% → 79% +11SAC 68% → 79%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3
- OKC 61%
- Fair odds
- OKC -136
- SAC +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 116.5 – 114.2 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +64 | −6 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +80 Elo | OKC 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 112.018th of 30 |
| 24th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 116.020th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −4.021st of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 108.019th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 111.918th of 30 |
| 5th of 30104.0 | Pace | 100.824th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 2–112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.