Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Caris LeVertPoints22
- Donovan MitchellAssists5
- Max StrusRebounds8
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints30
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Kevon LooneyRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–110
- Q44.1shot clock turnover118–110
- Q426.1Max Strus defensive rebound118–110
- Q430.1Cory Joseph misses 26-foot three point jumper118–110
- Q439.1Craig Porter makes free throw 2 of 2118–110
- Q439.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound117–110
- Q439.1Craig Porter misses free throw 1 of 2117–110
- Q439.1Jonathan Kuminga personal take foul117–110
- Q441.0Moses Moody makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cory Joseph assists)117–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:42Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)CLE 72 – 65 GS · GS 25% → 34% +8GS 25% → 34%+8 pts
- Q30.1Caris LeVert makes tip shotCLE 84 – 83 GS · CLE 41% → 50% +8CLE 41% → 50%+8 pts
- Q411:49Dean Wade makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 87 – 83 GS · CLE 50% → 62% +12CLE 50% → 62%+12 pts
- Q411:04Dean Wade makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 90 – 83 GS · CLE 63% → 74% +11CLE 63% → 74%+11 pts
- Q48:07Max Strus makes 3-foot dunk (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 96 – 90 GS · CLE 66% → 75% +9CLE 66% → 75%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3.5
- GS 64%
- Fair odds
- GS -145
- CLE +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 111.2 – 114.0 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | +11 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +101 Elo | GS 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 59.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.6 | Points scored | 114.912th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 110.110th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−3.5 | Margin | +4.87th of 30 |
| 24th of 30106.7 | Offense rating | 113.57th of 30 |
| 15th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 108.710th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.219th of 30 |
| 9th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 GS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.