Cleveland Cavaliers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints34
- Max StrusAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints17
- Shaedon SharpeAssists5
- Shaedon SharpeRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–95
- Q415.1shot clock turnover109–95
- Q438.1Tristan Thompson defensive rebound109–95
- Q441.1Rayan Rupert misses 26-foot three point jumper109–95
- Q454.1Craig Porter bad pass (Kris Murray steals)109–95
- Q41:18Emoni Bates defensive rebound109–95
- Q41:20Kris Murray misses 25-foot three point jumper109–95
- Q41:30Jarrett Allen out of bounds bad pass turnover109–95
- Q41:30Damian Jones enters the game for Dean Wade109–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:14Matisse Thybulle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kris Murray assists)CLE 32 – 32 POR · POR 35% → 42% +7POR 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q28:28Jabari Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Duop Reath assists)CLE 38 – 38 POR · POR 35% → 42% +7POR 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q28:11Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot step back jumpshotCLE 41 – 38 POR · CLE 58% → 65% +7CLE 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q38:15Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)CLE 60 – 53 POR · POR 17% → 24% +7POR 17% → 24%+7 pts
- Q32:44Duop Reath makes 27-foot three point jumper (Skylar Mays assists)CLE 73 – 68 POR · POR 19% → 27% +9POR 19% → 27%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3
- CLE 61%
- Fair odds
- CLE -146
- POR +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 113.3 – 110.4 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +25 | −25 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +79 Elo | CLE 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.7 | Points scored | 105.730th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 112.012th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.2 | Margin | −6.326th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 102.730th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 108.88th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.819th of 30 |
| 10th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.