Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints26
- Skylar MaysAssists10
- Deandre AytonRebounds10
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints30
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists7
- Kelly OlynykRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–115
- Q420.0Collin Sexton defensive rebound99–115
- Q422.1Collin Sexton blocks Rayan Rupert 's 8-foot jumper99–115
- Q428.1Kris Dunn out of bounds bad pass turnover99–115
- Q441.1Rayan Rupert makes free throw 2 of 299–115
- Q441.1Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Ochai Agbaji98–115
- Q441.1Kris Dunn enters the game for Jordan Clarkson98–115
- Q441.1Luka Samanic enters the game for John Collins98–115
- Q441.1Omer Yurtseven enters the game for Keyonte George98–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:26Jerami Grant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)POR 82 – 85 UTAH · POR 24% → 34% +10POR 24% → 34%+10 pts
- Q31:34Jordan Clarkson makes 25-foot three point jumperPOR 84 – 90 UTAH · UTAH 66% → 76% +10UTAH 66% → 76%+10 pts
- Q332.0Collin Sexton makes 25-foot step back jumpshotPOR 86 – 93 UTAH · UTAH 70% → 80% +10UTAH 70% → 80%+10 pts
- Q411:34Shaedon Sharpe makes 30-foot three point jumper (Skylar Mays assists)POR 89 – 95 UTAH · POR 14% → 22% +8POR 14% → 22%+8 pts
- Q411:01Skylar Mays makes driving layupPOR 93 – 95 UTAH · POR 29% → 37% +8POR 29% → 37%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -2
- UTAH 58%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -148
- POR +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 112.6 – 115.5 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | +4 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +59 Elo | UTAH 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 59.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.4 | Points scored | 113.913th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 121.626th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.2 | Margin | −7.729th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.0 | Offense rating | 110.914th of 30 |
| 9th of 30108.0 | Defense rating | 118.430th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.1 | Pace | 102.610th of 30 |
| 20th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.