Utah Jazz at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints33
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists9
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds9
Pacers- Aaron NesmithPoints24
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Jalen SmithRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–134
- Q422.0Jordan Clarkson lost ball turnover (Bruce Brown steals)118–134
- Q428.0shot clock turnover118–134
- Q451.1Jordan Clarkson lost ball turnover (Aaron Nesmith steals)118–134
- Q457.1Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)118–134
- Q41:16Jordan Clarkson makes free throw 3 of 3118–131
- Q41:16Jordan Clarkson makes free throw 2 of 3117–131
- Q41:16Jordan Clarkson makes free throw 1 of 3116–131
- Q41:16Myles Turner shooting foul115–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:32Tyrese Haliburton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)UTAH 75 – 78 IND · IND 62% → 71% +9IND 62% → 71%+9 pts
- Q36:01John Collins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)UTAH 80 – 80 IND · UTAH 29% → 38% +9UTAH 29% → 38%+9 pts
- Q31:57Collin Sexton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)UTAH 93 – 93 IND · UTAH 29% → 40% +11UTAH 29% → 40%+11 pts
- Q359.0Kris Dunn makes 23-foot three point shot (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)UTAH 98 – 95 IND · UTAH 40% → 52% +12UTAH 40% → 52%+12 pts
- Q411:12Bennedict Mathurin makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)UTAH 98 – 104 IND · IND 71% → 81% +10IND 71% → 81%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -6
- IND 72%
- Fair odds
- IND -218
- UTAH +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 114.0 – 119.9 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +66 | UTAH: Usual rotation · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +162 Elo | IND 71.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 124.91st of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.1 | Points allowed | 121.728th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.4 | Margin | +3.19th of 30 |
| 15th of 30109.4 | Offense rating | 118.33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.6 | Defense rating | 115.325th of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.1 | Pace | 105.52nd of 30 |
| 24th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 3–213th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.