Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Mark WilliamsPoints27
- LaMelo BallAssists11
- Nick RichardsRebounds10
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints43
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Jalen SmithRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–124
- Q416.0Buddy Hield defensive rebound125–124
- Q417.1Buddy Hield blocks P.J. Washington 's 4-foot layup125–124
- Q421.1Hornets Full timeout125–124
- Q423.1Tyrese Haliburton bad pass (Mark Williams steals)125–124
- Q428.1Pacers offensive team rebound125–124
- Q429.1Buddy Hield misses free throw 1 of 1125–124
- Q429.1(00:29.3) [Hornets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Hornets] charged with a timeout125–124
- Q429.1Hornets Full timeout125–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:38Terry Rozier makes 26-foot three pointer (Mark Williams assists)CHA 112 – 110 IND · CHA 43% → 60% +17CHA 43% → 60%+17 pts
- Q44:08Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)CHA 118 – 116 IND · IND 19% → 37% +18IND 19% → 37%+18 pts
- Q43:00Tyrese Haliburton makes 32-foot three pointerCHA 121 – 119 IND · IND 15% → 35% +19IND 15% → 35%+19 pts
- Q41:03Mark Williams makes alley oop layup (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 125 – 122 IND · CHA 63% → 85% +22CHA 63% → 85%+22 pts
- Q429.1Buddy Hield makes 2-foot two point shot (Bruce Brown assists)CHA 125 – 124 IND · IND 6% → 31% +24IND 6% → 31%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1
- IND 55%
- Fair odds
- IND -115
- CHA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 115.2 – 116.3 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +21 | +22 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +32 Elo | IND 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 53.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 119.65th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 123.229th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−6.8 | Margin | −3.619th of 30 |
| 19th of 30107.3 | Offense rating | 112.99th of 30 |
| 24th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 116.329th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.1 | Pace | 105.93rd of 30 |
| 20th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.