San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Doug McDermottPoints17
- Tre JonesAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds10
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints23
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Myles TurnerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–152
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–152
- Q413.1shot clock turnover111–152
- Q437.1Julian Champagnie makes dunk (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)111–152
- Q440.1Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound109–152
- Q442.1Jarace Walker misses two point shot109–152
- Q451.1Ben Sheppard defensive rebound109–152
- Q452.1Sandro Mamukelashvili misses free throw 2 of 2109–152
- Q452.1Sandro Mamukelashvili makes free throw 1 of 2109–152
- Q452.1Isaiah Jackson shooting foul108–152
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:48Zach Collins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 11 – 13 IND · SA 26% → 31% +6SA 26% → 31%+6 pts
- Q17:34Tyrese Haliburton makes 24-foot three pointer (Bennedict Mathurin assists)SA 11 – 16 IND · IND 69% → 74% +6IND 69% → 74%+6 pts
- Q15:17Doug McDermott makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 18 – 20 IND · SA 26% → 32% +6SA 26% → 32%+6 pts
- Q14:43Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)SA 20 – 25 IND · IND 68% → 74% +6IND 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q14:29Cedi Osman makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 23 – 25 IND · SA 26% → 32% +6SA 26% → 32%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4
- IND 66%
- Fair odds
- IND -189
- SA +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 114.2 – 119.1 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +3 | +29 | SA: Usual rotation · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +114 Elo | IND 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 65.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 120.35th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.5 | Points allowed | 123.529th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.3 | Margin | −3.219th of 30 |
| 19th of 30107.3 | Offense rating | 114.57th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 117.530th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.9 | Pace | 105.03rd of 30 |
| 6th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 2–213th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.