Toronto Raptors at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints30
- Scottie BarnesAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds11
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints26
- Tre JonesAssists6
- Zach CollinsRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game123–116
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime123–116
- OT0.2Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2123–116
- OT0.2Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2122–116
- OT0.2Zach Collins personal foul121–116
- OT11.0Pascal Siakam defensive rebound121–116
- OT13.0Doug McDermott misses 27-foot three point shot121–116
- OT16.1Doug McDermott enters the game for Jeremy Sochan121–116
- OT16.1Spurs Full timeout121–116
- OT16.1O.G. Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2121–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:19Keldon Johnson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)TOR 103 – 108 SA · SA 74% → 94% +20SA 74% → 94%+20 pts
- Q437.2Scottie Barnes makes 24-foot three pointerTOR 108 – 108 SA · TOR 8% → 49% +41TOR 8% → 49%+41 pts
- Q414.1Keldon Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2TOR 108 – 109 SA · SA 50% → 77% +27SA 50% → 77%+27 pts
- Q41.0O.G. Anunoby makes two point shotTOR 110 – 110 SA · TOR <1% → 50% +50TOR <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT4:18Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 113 – 110 SA · TOR 48% → 68% +20TOR 48% → 68%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Spurs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1
- SA 55%
- Fair odds
- SA -126
- TOR +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 111.9 – 113.6 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +9 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +34 Elo | SA 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 55.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30104.5 | Points scored | 115.011th of 30 |
| 6th of 30106.0 | Points allowed | 121.227th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −6.226th of 30 |
| 27th of 30103.9 | Offense rating | 107.618th of 30 |
| 7th of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 113.422nd of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.8 | Pace | 105.04th of 30 |
| 21st of 300–2 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.