Utah Jazz at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints29
- Kelly OlynykAssists8
- Walker KesslerRebounds15
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints24
- Coby WhiteAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–130
- Q418.1Luka Samanic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)113–130
- Q429.0Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2110–130
- Q429.0Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 2110–129
- Q429.0Luka Samanic personal foul110–128
- Q438.1Collin Sexton makes layup (Luka Samanic assists)110–128
- Q438.1Luka Samanic defensive rebound108–128
- Q442.1Omer Yurtseven blocks Dalen Terry 's 1-foot driving layup108–128
- Q449.0Julian Phillips defensive rebound108–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:48Patrick Williams makes 29-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)UTAH 24 – 26 CHI · CHI 49% → 56% +7CHI 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q11:01Kelly Olynyk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 29 – 32 CHI · UTAH 35% → 42% +7UTAH 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q127.1Collin Sexton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)UTAH 32 – 34 CHI · UTAH 37% → 44% +7UTAH 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q16.1Jevon Carter makes 26-foot three pointerUTAH 32 – 37 CHI · CHI 56% → 63% +7CHI 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q210:56Kris Dunn makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)UTAH 35 – 39 CHI · UTAH 32% → 39% +7UTAH 32% → 39%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- CHI 52%
- Fair odds
- CHI -106
- UTAH +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 112.9 – 113.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | −18 | UTAH: Usual rotation · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +11 Elo | CHI 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 51.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.6 | Points scored | 105.028th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 113.717th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.1 | Margin | −8.728th of 30 |
| 15th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 105.326th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 114.123rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.6 | Pace | 98.330th of 30 |
| 24th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.