Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints26
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists11
- Kelly OlynykRebounds8
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints37
- Desmond BaneAssists8
- Bismack BiyomboRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–121
- Q43.1Lauri Markkanen defensive rebound127–121
- Q47.0Jacob Gilyard misses 27-foot step back jumpshot127–121
- Q414.2Keyonte George makes free throw 2 of 2127–121
- Q414.2John Collins enters the game for Kelly Olynyk126–121
- Q414.2Keyonte George makes free throw 1 of 2126–121
- Q414.2Jacob Gilyard personal foul125–121
- Q418.1Kelly Olynyk enters the game for John Collins125–121
- Q418.1David Roddy enters the game for Luke Kennard125–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:34Desmond Bane makes 26-foot step back jumpshotUTAH 111 – 111 MEM · MEM 37% → 53% +17MEM 37% → 53%+17 pts
- Q46:16Keyonte George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 114 – 111 MEM · UTAH 47% → 64% +17UTAH 47% → 64%+17 pts
- Q46:04Desmond Bane makes 26-foot step back jumpshotUTAH 114 – 114 MEM · MEM 36% → 53% +17MEM 36% → 53%+17 pts
- Q42:17Luke Kennard makes 25-foot three pointer (Desmond Bane assists)UTAH 120 – 119 MEM · MEM 18% → 42% +24MEM 18% → 42%+24 pts
- Q41:41Jordan Clarkson makes tip shotUTAH 122 – 119 MEM · UTAH 59% → 79% +19UTAH 59% → 79%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -2.5
- MEM 60%
- Fair odds
- MEM -141
- UTAH +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 112.9 – 115.5 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | +15 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +72 Elo | MEM 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 107.527th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.7 | Points allowed | 114.117th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.2 | Margin | −6.625th of 30 |
| 15th of 30109.4 | Offense rating | 102.530th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.3 | Defense rating | 108.813th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.7 | Pace | 103.58th of 30 |
| 26th of 300–5 | Road vs home | 0–430th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 1–0 MEM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.