Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints30
- Kyle LowryAssists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points28
- Marcus SmartAssists7
- Bismack BiyomboRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–102
- Q47.2Kyle Lowry defensive rebound108–102
- Q49.0Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot108–102
- Q418.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)108–102
- Q435.1Heat Full timeout105–102
- Q435.1Heat Full timeout105–102
- Q435.1Santi Aldama makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot105–102
- Q438.0Kyle Lowry bad pass (Santi Aldama steals)105–99
- Q446.1Desmond Bane makes 1-foot two point shot105–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:46Santi Aldama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jacob Gilyard assists)MIA 77 – 79 MEM · MEM 46% → 58% +13MEM 46% → 58%+13 pts
- Q48:51Kyle Lowry makes 24-foot three pointerMIA 86 – 83 MEM · MIA 50% → 64% +14MIA 50% → 64%+14 pts
- Q48:18Santi Aldama makes 3-foot dunk (Marcus Smart assists)MIA 86 – 85 MEM · MEM 35% → 45% +10MEM 35% → 45%+10 pts
- Q47:21Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 2-foot layup (Duncan Robinson assists)MIA 88 – 85 MEM · MIA 55% → 66% +10MIA 55% → 66%+10 pts
- Q46:11Kyle Lowry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 94 – 86 MEM · MIA 77% → 88% +11MIA 77% → 88%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIA 51%
- Fair odds
- MIA -101
- MEM +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 112.2 – 112.1 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +5 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | MEM crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +5 Elo | MIA 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30107.4 | Points scored | 108.324th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 115.021st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.9 | Margin | −6.726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30106.9 | Offense rating | 102.829th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 109.213th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.4 | Pace | 103.76th of 30 |
| 25th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 0–330th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.