Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints23
- Skylar MaysAssists12
- Deandre AytonRebounds7
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints30
- D'Angelo RussellAssists11
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–116
- Q40.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound110–116
- Q42.1Skylar Mays misses 26-foot three point jumper110–116
- Q46.1Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2110–116
- Q46.1Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2110–115
- Q46.1Shaedon Sharpe personal take foul110–114
- Q410.1Shaedon Sharpe makes 1-foot driving dunk110–114
- Q415.1Rui Hachimura makes free throw 2 of 2108–114
- Q415.1Rui Hachimura makes free throw 1 of 2108–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:03Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point shot (Skylar Mays assists)POR 101 – 102 LAL · POR 28% → 45% +18POR 28% → 45%+18 pts
- Q43:18Jerami Grant makes driving layup (Toumani Camara assists)POR 103 – 104 LAL · POR 29% → 44% +15POR 29% → 44%+15 pts
- Q42:47Rui Hachimura makes tip shotPOR 103 – 106 LAL · LAL 57% → 73% +16LAL 57% → 73%+16 pts
- Q42:20Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)POR 106 – 108 LAL · POR 13% → 33% +20POR 13% → 33%+20 pts
- Q41:57Anthony Davis makes 8-foot two point shot (Austin Reaves assists)POR 106 – 110 LAL · LAL 69% → 84% +16LAL 69% → 84%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Trail Blazers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -1
- POR 55%
- Fair odds
- POR -125
- LAL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 113.5 – 111.7 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −14 | −107 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +34 Elo | POR 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.0 | Points scored | 110.420th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 116.622nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.1 | Margin | −6.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 30102.5 | Offense rating | 106.427th of 30 |
| 9th of 30107.5 | Defense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.518th of 30 |
| 15th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−107 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.