Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints32
- D'Angelo RussellAssists9
- LeBron JamesRebounds11
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints38
- Jusuf NurkicAssists7
- Kevin DurantRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–119
- Q40.1Eric Gordon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)122–119
- Q41.2Jusuf Nurkic enters the game for Keita Bates-Diop122–116
- Q41.2Suns Full timeout122–116
- Q41.2Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2122–116
- Q41.2Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2121–116
- Q41.2Yuta Watanabe enters the game for Grayson Allen120–116
- Q41.2Grayson Allen personal take foul120–116
- Q44.1Grayson Allen personal take foul120–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:03Christian Wood makes 27-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 103 – 98 PHX · LAL 51% → 66% +15LAL 51% → 66%+15 pts
- Q46:12Kevin Durant makes 26-foot step back jumpshotLAL 105 – 101 PHX · PHX 21% → 35% +15PHX 21% → 35%+15 pts
- Q42:43LeBron James makes 19-foot two point shot (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 115 – 111 PHX · LAL 62% → 77% +15LAL 62% → 77%+15 pts
- Q42:23Bradley Beal makes 8-foot two point shotLAL 115 – 113 PHX · PHX 21% → 37% +16PHX 21% → 37%+16 pts
- Q41:10Cam Reddish makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 118 – 113 PHX · LAL 72% → 94% +22LAL 72% → 94%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -6.5
- PHX 73%
- Fair odds
- PHX -255
- LAL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 109.6 – 116.7 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −90 | +38 | LAL: Missing Jalen Hood-Schifino −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +177 Elo | PHX 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 71.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 71.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.0 | Points scored | 112.516th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 111.011th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.3 | Margin | +1.514th of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.8 | Offense rating | 109.117th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 107.710th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.516th of 30 |
| 28th of 300–5 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−90 Elo- Jalen Hood-Schifino right knee contusion−1 Elo
Suns
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 1–0 PHX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.