Phoenix Suns at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Grayson AllenPoints26
- Kevin DurantAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds17
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints26
- Zach LaVineAssists8
- Zach LaVineRebounds8
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game116–115
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime116–115
- OT0.0Alex Caruso out of bounds bad pass turnover116–115
- OT0.0Bol Bol enters the game for Jordan Goodwin116–115
- OT0.0Bulls Full timeout116–115
- OT0.0Zach LaVine defensive rebound116–115
- OT0.1Jusuf Nurkic misses free throw 2 of 2116–115
- OT0.1Suns offensive team rebound116–115
- OT0.1Jusuf Nurkic misses free throw 1 of 2116–115
- OT0.1(00:00.4) [Suns] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)116–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q415.1DeMar DeRozan makes driving layupPHX 107 – 107 CHI · CHI 8% → 50% +43CHI 8% → 50%+43 pts
- OT3:09Nikola Vucevic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)PHX 109 – 110 CHI · CHI 34% → 58% +24CHI 34% → 58%+24 pts
- OT2:27Alex Caruso makes 26-foot three point shot (Nikola Vucevic assists)PHX 109 – 113 CHI · CHI 59% → 82% +23CHI 59% → 82%+23 pts
- OT1:06Keita Bates-Diop makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)PHX 114 – 115 CHI · PHX 8% → 36% +28PHX 8% → 36%+28 pts
- OT7.1Jusuf Nurkic makes driving layup (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 116 – 115 CHI · PHX 15% → 85% +71PHX 15% → 85%+71 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -0.5
- CHI 49%
- Fair odds
- CHI -102
- PHX +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 112.3 – 112.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +4 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +9 Elo | PHX 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 108.125th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 113.616th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −5.525th of 30 |
| 15th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 108.617th of 30 |
| 10th of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 114.124th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.7 | Pace | 98.429th of 30 |
| 9th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.