Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints33
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds15
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints34
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists5
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–120
- Q40.0Pistons offensive team rebound118–120
- Q40.1Cade Cunningham misses 52-foot three point jumper118–120
- Q43.2Pistons Full timeout118–120
- Q43.2Jae Crowder makes free throw 2 of 2118–120
- Q43.2Bucks offensive team rebound118–119
- Q43.2Jae Crowder misses free throw 1 of 2118–119
- Q43.2Ausar Thompson personal take foul118–119
- Q49.1Cade Cunningham bad pass (Malik Beasley steals)118–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:47Marcus Sasser makes 14-foot driving floating jump shotDET 79 – 81 MIL · DET 16% → 36% +20DET 16% → 36%+20 pts
- Q42:10Damian Lillard makes two point shot (Malik Beasley assists)DET 113 – 112 MIL · MIL 25% → 43% +18MIL 25% → 43%+18 pts
- Q41:33Damian Lillard makes 2-foot two point shotDET 115 – 114 MIL · MIL 21% → 41% +20MIL 21% → 41%+20 pts
- Q41:12Damian Lillard makes 7-foot two point shotDET 115 – 116 MIL · MIL 39% → 65% +26MIL 39% → 65%+26 pts
- Q440.0Cade Cunningham makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 118 – 119 MIL · DET 18% → 32% +14DET 18% → 32%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3
- MIL 62%
- Fair odds
- MIL -159
- DET +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 112.6 – 116.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | 0 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +83 Elo | MIL 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30109.4 | Points scored | 116.79th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 119.725th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−3.5 | Margin | −3.018th of 30 |
| 21st of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 113.68th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 116.526th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.4 | Pace | 102.710th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–18th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.