New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints45
- Julius RandleAssists5
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds15
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints30
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists6
- Khris MiddletonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–110
- Q40.0Knicks offensive team rebound105–110
- Q41.1Jalen Brunson misses 25-foot three point jumper105–110
- Q46.1Damian Lillard makes free throw 2 of 2105–110
- Q46.1Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 2105–109
- Q46.1Jalen Brunson personal foul105–108
- Q48.1Jalen Brunson makes driving layup (Julius Randle assists)105–108
- Q412.0Brook Lopez personal foul103–108
- Q417.1Immanuel Quickley enters the game for Mitchell Robinson103–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:55Damian Lillard makes finger roll layupNY 97 – 101 MIL · MIL 69% → 82% +13MIL 69% → 82%+13 pts
- Q41:43Julius Randle makes 6-foot two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 100 – 101 MIL · NY 19% → 37% +18NY 19% → 37%+18 pts
- Q41:10Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)NY 103 – 101 MIL · NY 35% → 74% +38NY 35% → 74%+38 pts
- Q41:03Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)NY 103 – 104 MIL · MIL 25% → 65% +40MIL 25% → 65%+40 pts
- Q437.2Damian Lillard makes layup (Khris Middleton assists)NY 103 – 106 MIL · MIL 69% → 92% +23MIL 69% → 92%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1.5
- MIL 56%
- Fair odds
- MIL -149
- NY +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 110.9 – 113.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −55 | −20 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +43 Elo | MIL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30103.0 | Points scored | 115.39th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30102.0 | Points allowed | 122.028th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −6.824th of 30 |
| 28th of 30102.6 | Offense rating | 112.28th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30101.6 | Defense rating | 118.830th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.613th of 30 |
| 6th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.