Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints36
- Damian LillardAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints45
- Mikal BridgesAssists4
- Ben SimmonsRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–125
- Q40.0Nets offensive team rebound129–125
- Q40.0Dorian Finney-Smith misses tip shot129–125
- Q40.0Dorian Finney-Smith offensive rebound129–125
- Q40.0Royce O'Neale misses two point shot129–125
- Q44.0Royce O'Neale offensive rebound129–125
- Q44.0Cam Thomas misses 23-foot three point jumper129–125
- Q45.2Pat Connaughton enters the game for Brook Lopez129–125
- Q45.2Cam Thomas enters the game for Day'Ron Sharpe129–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:14Giannis Antetokounmpo makes driving dunk (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 121 – 119 BKN · MIL 48% → 67% +19MIL 48% → 67%+19 pts
- Q41:57Cam Thomas makes 2-foot two point shotMIL 121 – 121 BKN · BKN 32% → 52% +20BKN 32% → 52%+20 pts
- Q41:40Khris Middleton makes 19-foot two point shotMIL 123 – 121 BKN · MIL 48% → 70% +21MIL 48% → 70%+21 pts
- Q41:27Mikal Bridges makes 15-foot pullup jump shotMIL 123 – 123 BKN · BKN 29% → 52% +23BKN 29% → 52%+23 pts
- Q41:11Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot layup (Khris Middleton assists)MIL 125 – 123 BKN · MIL 49% → 73% +25MIL 49% → 73%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -3
- BKN 62%
- Fair odds
- BKN -145
- MIL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 113.5 – 116.3 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | +12 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BKN +83 Elo | BKN 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 59.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 116.38th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 116.023rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.4 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 114.28th of 30 |
| 28th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 113.923rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.2 | Pace | 101.917th of 30 |
| 23rd of 300–1 | Road vs home | 0–228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.