Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints32
- Dejounte MurrayAssists10
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds9
Pistons- Marvin Bagley IIIPoints22
- Cade CunninghamAssists12
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–120
- Q40.1Jalen Johnson defensive rebound126–120
- Q40.1Clint Capela blocks Cade Cunningham 's 4-foot driving layup126–120
- Q46.1Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2126–120
- Q46.1Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2125–120
- Q46.1Kevin Knox II personal take foul124–120
- Q48.1Alec Burks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)124–120
- Q418.1Jalen Johnson makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Dejounte Murray assists)124–117
- Q422.1Dejounte Murray defensive rebound122–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:41Saddiq Bey makes 27-foot three point shot (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 114 – 110 DET · ATL 60% → 78% +17ATL 60% → 78%+17 pts
- Q43:22Alec Burks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)ATL 114 – 113 DET · DET 19% → 39% +20DET 19% → 39%+20 pts
- Q42:01Kevin Knox II makes 2-foot dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)ATL 116 – 117 DET · DET 38% → 58% +20DET 38% → 58%+20 pts
- Q41:38De'Andre Hunter makes 11-foot jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 118 – 117 DET · ATL 41% → 63% +22ATL 41% → 63%+22 pts
- Q458.1Clint Capela makes 3-foot dunk (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 120 – 117 DET · ATL 66% → 87% +21ATL 66% → 87%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4
- ATL 65%
- Fair odds
- ATL -163
- DET +163 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.8 – 113.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +53 | −23 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Missing Jalen Duren −1, Isaiah Livers −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +111 Elo | ATL 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.3 | Points scored | 109.724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 114.219th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.3 | Margin | −4.522nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 107.823rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 112.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.1 | Pace | 101.715th of 30 |
| 8th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−23 Elo- Jalen Duren right ankle soreness−1 Elo
- Isaiah Livers left ankle sprain−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.