Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints26
- Haywood HighsmithAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds17
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints27
- Trae YoungAssists11
- Clint CapelaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–109
- Q48.1Bam Adebayo defensive rebound117–109
- Q413.1De'Andre Hunter misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot117–109
- Q417.0Kyle Lowry out of bounds bad pass turnover117–109
- Q419.0Heat Full timeout117–109
- Q419.0Heat defensive team rebound117–109
- Q422.0Trae Young misses 27-foot step back jumpshot117–109
- Q427.2Kyle Lowry makes free throw 2 of 2117–109
- Q427.2Kyle Lowry makes free throw 1 of 2116–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28.1Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)MIA 60 – 52 ATL · ATL 33% → 41% +8ATL 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q20.0Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Haywood Highsmith assists)MIA 63 – 52 ATL · MIA 59% → 67% +8MIA 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q37:15Dejounte Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)MIA 71 – 64 ATL · ATL 31% → 40% +9ATL 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q36:58Kyle Lowry makes 22-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)MIA 74 – 64 ATL · MIA 60% → 69% +9MIA 60% → 69%+9 pts
- Q36:18Trae Young makes 25-foot three pointerMIA 74 – 67 ATL · ATL 30% → 39% +9ATL 30% → 39%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -6
- ATL 73%
- Fair odds
- ATL -232
- MIA +232 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 110.8 – 117.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | +79 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +171 Elo | ATL 72.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 69.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.5 | Points scored | 121.83rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 117.024th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +4.88th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 12th of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 112.119th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.5 | Pace | 104.44th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 2–114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+79 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.