Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints41
- Trae YoungAssists8
- Clint CapelaRebounds11
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints21
- Joe InglesAssists5
- Paolo BancheroRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–119
- Q46.2Markelle Fultz bad pass (Trae Young steals)120–119
- Q47.2Markelle Fultz offensive rebound120–119
- Q47.2Paolo Banchero misses 27-foot three point jumper120–119
- Q431.0Dejounte Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)120–119
- Q442.1Franz Wagner makes 8-foot two point shot117–119
- Q41:03Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2117–117
- Q41:03Hawks offensive team rebound116–117
- Q41:03Trae Young misses free throw 1 of 2116–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:04Jalen Johnson makes driving layupATL 114 – 113 ORL · ATL 46% → 60% +14ATL 46% → 60%+14 pts
- Q43:34Paolo Banchero makes dunk (Jalen Suggs assists)ATL 114 – 115 ORL · ORL 39% → 54% +15ORL 39% → 54%+15 pts
- Q43:07Jonathan Isaac makes dunk (Markelle Fultz assists)ATL 114 – 117 ORL · ORL 55% → 70% +15ORL 55% → 70%+15 pts
- Q442.1Franz Wagner makes 8-foot two point shotATL 117 – 119 ORL · ORL 49% → 80% +31ORL 49% → 80%+31 pts
- Q431.0Dejounte Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 120 – 119 ORL · ATL 17% → 70% +54ATL 17% → 70%+54 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3.5
- ATL 63%
- Fair odds
- ATL -161
- ORL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 115.3 – 111.7 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | +80 | −3 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +94 Elo | ATL 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.0 | Points scored | 108.625th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 105.43rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.3 | Margin | +3.112th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 106.227th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 103.13rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.1 | Pace | 102.213th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.