Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints29
- Kyrie IrvingAssists10
- Kyrie IrvingRebounds6
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints22
- Jalen SuggsAssists7
- Goga BitadzeRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–102
- Q419.1shot clock turnover117–102
- Q441.1Grant Williams defensive rebound117–102
- Q444.1Grant Williams blocks Franz Wagner 's 11-foot driving floating jump shot117–102
- Q454.0Kyrie Irving makes 3-foot two point shot117–102
- Q41:10Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound115–102
- Q41:13Cole Anthony misses running pullup jump shot115–102
- Q41:19Moritz Wagner defensive rebound115–102
- Q41:22Grant Williams misses 24-foot three point jumper115–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:28Josh Green makes 24-foot three point shot (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL 83 – 81 ORL · DAL 43% → 55% +12DAL 43% → 55%+12 pts
- Q49:03Luka Doncic makes 25-foot step back jumpshotDAL 95 – 88 ORL · DAL 66% → 78% +12DAL 66% → 78%+12 pts
- Q46:27Cole Anthony makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Paolo Banchero assists)DAL 98 – 95 ORL · ORL 21% → 35% +14ORL 21% → 35%+14 pts
- Q45:31Cole Anthony makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Paolo Banchero assists)DAL 99 – 97 ORL · ORL 29% → 40% +11ORL 29% → 40%+11 pts
- Q45:09Kyrie Irving makes 4-foot two point shotDAL 101 – 97 ORL · DAL 61% → 72% +12DAL 61% → 72%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1.5
- ORL 56%
- Fair odds
- ORL -126
- DAL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 112.4 – 114.2 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +50 | +11 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +43 Elo | ORL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 55.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.3 | Points scored | 109.719th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 103.53rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +6.27th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.6 | Offense rating | 107.817th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 101.72nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.5 | Pace | 101.818th of 30 |
| 6th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.