Charlotte Hornets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints30
- LaMelo BallAssists13
- LaMelo BallRebounds10
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints23
- Kyrie IrvingAssists10
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–124
- Q42.1Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2118–124
- Q42.1Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2118–123
- Q42.1JT Thor enters the game for LaMelo Ball118–122
- Q42.1LaMelo Ball personal take foul118–122
- Q44.1Mark Williams makes 1-foot dunk (Theo Maledon assists)118–122
- Q47.1Kyrie Irving makes free throw 2 of 2116–122
- Q47.1Kyrie Irving makes free throw 1 of 2116–121
- Q47.1Gordon Hayward personal take foul116–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:51LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 102 – 102 DAL · CHA 28% → 45% +17CHA 28% → 45%+17 pts
- Q45:33Grant Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)CHA 102 – 105 DAL · DAL 55% → 72% +17DAL 55% → 72%+17 pts
- Q43:30Grant Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)CHA 106 – 110 DAL · DAL 62% → 81% +19DAL 62% → 81%+19 pts
- Q42:29Grant Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)CHA 109 – 115 DAL · DAL 78% → 93% +15DAL 78% → 93%+15 pts
- Q42:07LaMelo Ball makes 30-foot three pointerCHA 112 – 115 DAL · CHA 6% → 20% +15CHA 6% → 20%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -5
- DAL 69%
- Fair odds
- DAL -187
- CHA +187 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 113.1 – 117.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | +42 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +139 Elo | DAL 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 65.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 120.84th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 115.821st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.2 | Margin | +5.08th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 119.02nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 114.125th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.1 | Pace | 101.719th of 30 |
| 11th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.