Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Kevin Knox IIPoints18
- Marcus SasserAssists6
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds16
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints29
- Coby WhiteAssists7
- Andre DrummondRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–119
- Q42.1shot clock turnover108–119
- Q424.0Torrey Craig defensive rebound108–119
- Q427.1Alec Burks misses 23-foot three point jumper108–119
- Q429.1Killian Hayes enters the game for Ausar Thompson108–119
- Q429.1Pistons Full timeout108–119
- Q429.1Zach LaVine makes free throw 2 of 2108–119
- Q429.1Zach LaVine makes free throw 1 of 2108–118
- Q429.1Alec Burks personal foul108–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:17Coby White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)DET 66 – 71 CHI · CHI 62% → 72% +9CHI 62% → 72%+9 pts
- Q328.2Marcus Sasser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 81 – 82 CHI · DET 30% → 41% +11DET 30% → 41%+11 pts
- Q411:26Kevin Knox II makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)DET 84 – 85 CHI · DET 29% → 41% +12DET 29% → 41%+12 pts
- Q47:02Kevin Knox II makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 94 – 99 CHI · DET 12% → 22% +10DET 12% → 22%+10 pts
- Q46:45Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)DET 94 – 102 CHI · CHI 78% → 88% +10CHI 78% → 88%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2.5
- CHI 60%
- Fair odds
- CHI -146
- DET +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 111.2 – 114.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | −5 | DET: Missing Jalen Duren −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +73 Elo | CHI 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 59.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.9 | Points scored | 108.925th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 113.918th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.8 | Margin | −5.022nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30107.6 | Offense rating | 108.119th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 113.023rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.0 | Pace | 98.529th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−17 Elo- Jalen Duren right ankle soreness−1 Elo
Bulls
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.