Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints33
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists11
- Joel EmbiidRebounds16
Pistons- Killian HayesPoints23
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–106
- Q47.0James Wiseman makes layup (Stanley Umude assists)114–106
- Q414.0Stanley Umude defensive rebound114–104
- Q418.0Tobias Harris misses driving layup114–104
- Q437.1Ausar Thompson makes 4-foot two point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)114–104
- Q444.0Ausar Thompson defensive rebound114–102
- Q449.0Tobias Harris misses 25-foot three point jumper114–102
- Q41:06James Wiseman makes tip shot114–102
- Q41:06James Wiseman offensive rebound114–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:14Joel Embiid makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 60 – 60 DET · PHI 52% → 61% +9PHI 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q36:15Isaiah Stewart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)PHI 62 – 65 DET · DET 39% → 49% +10DET 39% → 49%+10 pts
- Q34:38Stanley Umude makes 30-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)PHI 66 – 69 DET · DET 40% → 50% +10DET 40% → 50%+10 pts
- Q31:25De'Anthony Melton makes 25-foot three pointerPHI 77 – 73 DET · PHI 63% → 73% +10PHI 63% → 73%+10 pts
- Q353.0Nicolas Batum makes 27-foot three pointer (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 81 – 73 DET · PHI 77% → 85% +8PHI 77% → 85%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -5.5
- PHI 71%
- Fair odds
- PHI -201
- DET +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 116.1 – 110.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +85 | −15 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +159 Elo | PHI 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 66.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 110.320th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.6 | Points allowed | 113.715th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.7 | Margin | −3.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 107.720th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.1 | Defense rating | 110.916th of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.1 | Pace | 102.312th of 30 |
| 8th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–326th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.