Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Kristaps PorzingisPoints29
- Jayson TatumAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds15
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints27
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists5
- Joel EmbiidRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–106
- Q43.0Joel Embiid defensive rebound103–106
- Q46.0Kristaps Porzingis misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot103–106
- Q48.1Celtics Full timeout103–106
- Q48.1shot clock turnover103–106
- Q48.176ers offensive team rebound103–106
- Q48.1Tyrese Maxey misses 26-foot three point jumper103–106
- Q410.0Tobias Harris offensive rebound103–106
- Q411.0Jaylen Brown blocks Tyrese Maxey 's 18-foot pullup jump shot103–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:00Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)BOS 65 – 67 PHI · BOS 28% → 37% +9BOS 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q36:25Derrick White makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 68 – 69 PHI · BOS 31% → 40% +9BOS 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q34:10Joel Embiid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Patrick Beverley assists)BOS 68 – 72 PHI · PHI 59% → 69% +10PHI 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q33:25Sam Hauser makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 71 – 72 PHI · BOS 30% → 41% +10BOS 30% → 41%+10 pts
- Q349.0Robert Covington makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)BOS 71 – 79 PHI · PHI 74% → 83% +9PHI 74% → 83%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2
- PHI 58%
- Fair odds
- PHI -151
- BOS +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 113.2 – 116.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +60 | +90 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +59 Elo | PHI 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30123.5 | Points scored | 121.54th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.0 | Points allowed | 108.36th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+14.5 | Margin | +13.22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.4 | Offense rating | 118.71st of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.5 | Defense rating | 105.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 102.113th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303–1 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+90 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.