Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints28
- Jordan PooleAssists6
- Daniel GaffordRebounds7
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints48
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists11
- Joel EmbiidRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–146
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–146
- Q416.0Anthony Gill makes 2-foot dunk (Ryan Rollins assists)128–146
- Q419.1Ryan Rollins defensive rebound126–146
- Q422.0Anthony Gill blocks Kenyon Martin Jr. 's 1-foot dunk126–146
- Q429.1Mo Bamba defensive rebound126–146
- Q432.1Anthony Gill misses 27-foot three point jumper126–146
- Q445.1Danuel House Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1126–146
- Q445.1Bilal Coulibaly shooting foul126–145
- Q445.1Danuel House Jr. makes two point shot (Kenyon Martin Jr. assists)126–145
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:31Kyle Kuzma makes 28-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)WSH 13 – 8 PHI · WSH 32% → 38% +6WSH 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q17:15Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)WSH 13 – 11 PHI · PHI 62% → 68% +6PHI 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q16:41Deni Avdija makes 24-foot three point shot (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 16 – 11 PHI · WSH 32% → 38% +6WSH 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q13:34De'Anthony Melton makes 28-foot three point shot (Joel Embiid assists)WSH 18 – 20 PHI · PHI 69% → 75% +6PHI 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q13:09Jordan Poole makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)WSH 21 – 20 PHI · WSH 25% → 31% +6WSH 25% → 31%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -7.5
- PHI 78%
- Fair odds
- PHI -274
- WSH +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.5 – 118.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −48 | +63 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +216 Elo | PHI 77.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 72.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 73.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 116.66th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.2 | Points allowed | 104.44th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.2 | Margin | +12.23rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30107.5 | Offense rating | 116.34th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 104.15th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.1 | Pace | 100.025th of 30 |
| 23rd of 300–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.