Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints26
- Nikola JokicAssists18
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints26
- Brandon IngramAssists8
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–115
- Q47.1Naji Marshall defensive rebound110–115
- Q411.1Nikola Jokic misses 28-foot three point jumper110–115
- Q413.1Reggie Jackson enters the game for Christian Braun110–115
- Q413.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas110–115
- Q413.1Nuggets Full timeout110–115
- Q413.1Michael Porter Jr. enters the game for Peyton Watson110–115
- Q413.1Herbert Jones makes free throw 2 of 2110–115
- Q413.1Naji Marshall enters the game for Zion Williamson110–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:08Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)DEN 97 – 102 NO · DEN 16% → 29% +13DEN 16% → 29%+13 pts
- Q44:01Christian Braun makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 102 – 103 NO · DEN 34% → 48% +14DEN 34% → 48%+14 pts
- Q43:08Brandon Ingram makes 15-foot jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)DEN 102 – 105 NO · NO 53% → 69% +16NO 53% → 69%+16 pts
- Q42:34Zion Williamson makes two point shotDEN 102 – 107 NO · NO 71% → 84% +13NO 71% → 84%+13 pts
- Q459.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 110 – 113 NO · DEN 2% → 15% +14DEN 2% → 15%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -5.5
- DEN 71%
- Fair odds
- DEN -218
- NO +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 115.7 – 109.8 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +170 | +4 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Jose Alvarado −1 (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +154 Elo | DEN 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 68.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 111.120th of 30 |
| 5th of 30106.3 | Points allowed | 115.620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.2 | Margin | −4.523rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 108.323rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 112.821st of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.5 | Pace | 102.69th of 30 |
| 1st of 298–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 29 |
| 11th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+170 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+4 Elo- Jose Alvarado right ankle sprain−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 1–0 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.