Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints17
- Kyrie IrvingAssists6
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds9
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints25
- Brandon IngramAssists7
- Brandon IngramRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–131
- Q40.0Mavericks offensive team rebound110–131
- Q40.0Seth Curry misses 38-foot three point jumper110–131
- Q40.0Seth Curry defensive rebound110–131
- Q43.0Matt Ryan misses 17-foot step back jumpshot110–131
- Q425.1Matt Ryan defensive rebound110–131
- Q427.1Jaden Hardy misses driving floating jump shot110–131
- Q440.0Seth Curry defensive rebound110–131
- Q443.0Matt Ryan misses 18-foot pullup jump shot110–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:50Kyrie Irving makes 23-foot three pointerDAL 31 – 37 NO · DAL 41% → 48% +7DAL 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q210:21Grant Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Green assists)DAL 34 – 37 NO · DAL 48% → 56% +7DAL 48% → 56%+7 pts
- Q210:01Matt Ryan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)DAL 34 – 40 NO · NO 45% → 52% +7NO 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q29:00Jordan Hawkins makes 22-foot three point shot (Zion Williamson assists)DAL 34 – 43 NO · NO 52% → 60% +7NO 52% → 60%+7 pts
- Q229.2Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Hawkins assists)DAL 54 – 67 NO · NO 68% → 75% +7NO 68% → 75%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -5.5
- DAL 71%
- Fair odds
- DAL -185
- NO +185 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 118.7 – 114.0 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +86 | −19 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +154 Elo | DAL 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 64.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.1 | Points scored | 109.126th of 30 |
| 24th of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 116.222nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.5 | Margin | −7.127th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.0 | Offense rating | 106.726th of 30 |
| 24th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 113.623rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.5 | Pace | 102.312th of 30 |
| 1st of 304–1 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.