Toronto Raptors at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Pascal SiakamPoints31
- Scottie BarnesAssists7
- Scottie BarnesRebounds14
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints31
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–116
- Q40.1shot clock turnover127–116
- Q422.1O.G. Anunoby defensive rebound127–116
- Q425.1Luka Doncic misses 26-foot step back jumpshot127–116
- Q435.1Mavericks defensive team rebound127–116
- Q435.1Scottie Barnes misses tip shot127–116
- Q436.1Scottie Barnes offensive rebound127–116
- Q437.1Scottie Barnes misses 5-foot two point shot127–116
- Q439.0Scottie Barnes offensive rebound127–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:51Grant Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)TOR 64 – 63 DAL · DAL 48% → 57% +9DAL 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q39:04Grant Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)TOR 71 – 71 DAL · DAL 50% → 59% +9DAL 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q36:27O.G. Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 80 – 73 DAL · TOR 55% → 64% +10TOR 55% → 64%+10 pts
- Q32:21Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)TOR 89 – 84 DAL · DAL 29% → 39% +10DAL 29% → 39%+10 pts
- Q31:37Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)TOR 94 – 84 DAL · TOR 69% → 78% +10TOR 69% → 78%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4.5
- DAL 67%
- Fair odds
- DAL -177
- TOR +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 111.0 – 115.4 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | +55 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +120 Elo | DAL 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.1 | Points scored | 120.73rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.4 | Points allowed | 114.118th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +6.65th of 30 |
| 27th of 30105.2 | Offense rating | 117.62nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30105.5 | Defense rating | 111.217th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.9 | Pace | 102.99th of 30 |
| 18th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.