LA Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints26
- Bones HylandAssists6
- Moussa DiabateRebounds9
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints44
- Luka DoncicAssists6
- Derrick Jones Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–144
- Q420.0Bones Hyland makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot126–144
- Q434.2Dwight Powell makes layup (Dante Exum assists)124–144
- Q443.0Moussa Diabate makes two point shot124–142
- Q444.1Moussa Diabate offensive rebound122–142
- Q446.1Terance Mann misses 26-foot step back jumpshot122–142
- Q457.2Moussa Diabate defensive rebound122–142
- Q457.2Dwight Powell misses tip shot122–142
- Q457.2Dwight Powell offensive rebound122–142
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:52Kawhi Leonard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 19 – 18 DAL · LAC 36% → 43% +7LAC 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q13:10James Harden makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 26 – 19 DAL · LAC 50% → 57% +7LAC 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q11:03Kyrie Irving makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)LAC 33 – 25 DAL · DAL 33% → 40% +7DAL 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q143.0Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotLAC 33 – 28 DAL · DAL 40% → 47% +7DAL 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q210:25Derrick Jones Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAC 33 – 37 DAL · DAL 61% → 68% +7DAL 61% → 68%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2.5
- DAL 60%
- Fair odds
- DAL -150
- LAC +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 112.8 – 115.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +53 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +73 Elo | DAL 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 120.14th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.1 | Points allowed | 115.820th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.7 | Margin | +4.410th of 30 |
| 15th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 116.45th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.2 | Defense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.3 | Pace | 103.48th of 30 |
| 28th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 3–19th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.