LA Clippers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints24
- Russell WestbrookAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds10
Nets- Lonnie Walker IVPoints21
- Mikal BridgesAssists7
- Royce O'NealeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–100
- Q47.0Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)93–100
- Q48.1Russell Westbrook offensive rebound90–100
- Q412.0Paul George misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot90–100
- Q418.1Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)90–100
- Q434.1Royce O'Neale defensive rebound90–97
- Q439.0James Harden misses 25-foot three point jumper90–97
- Q444.1Clippers offensive team rebound90–97
- Q444.1Mikal Bridges blocks Russell Westbrook 's 3-foot two point shot90–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:10Lonnie Walker IV makes 27-foot three point jumperLAC 55 – 60 BKN · BKN 57% → 67% +10BKN 57% → 67%+10 pts
- Q34:58Kawhi Leonard makes 24-foot step back jumpshotLAC 60 – 60 BKN · LAC 39% → 50% +10LAC 39% → 50%+10 pts
- Q34:04Dorian Finney-Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)LAC 60 – 64 BKN · BKN 54% → 64% +10BKN 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q32:41Spencer Dinwiddie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)LAC 64 – 67 BKN · BKN 50% → 62% +11BKN 50% → 62%+11 pts
- Q31:58Norman Powell makes 24-foot three point jumper (P.J. Tucker assists)LAC 69 – 67 BKN · LAC 46% → 57% +12LAC 46% → 57%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- BKN 49%
- Fair odds
- BKN -103
- LAC +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 114.7 – 114.9 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +57 | +27 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +5 Elo | LAC 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 117.67th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.5 | Points allowed | 117.924th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+7.8 | Margin | −0.315th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 115.07th of 30 |
| 7th of 30105.9 | Defense rating | 115.325th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.5 | Pace | 102.113th of 30 |
| 25th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 0–329th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.