LA Clippers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints18
- James HardenAssists6
- Paul GeorgeRebounds7
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints27
- Josh HartAssists7
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–111
- Q416.1shot clock turnover97–111
- Q431.1Mitchell Robinson offensive rebound97–111
- Q433.0Julius Randle misses 23-foot three point jumper97–111
- Q453.1RJ Barrett defensive rebound97–111
- Q455.1Kobe Brown misses 24-foot three point jumper97–111
- Q41:13Clippers defensive team rebound97–111
- Q41:14Julius Randle misses 22-foot jumper97–111
- Q41:23Jalen Brunson offensive rebound97–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q244.1Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 46 – 42 NY · LAC 56% → 67% +11LAC 56% → 67%+11 pts
- Q33:01Julius Randle makes 25-foot three point shot (Josh Hart assists)LAC 66 – 70 NY · NY 49% → 60% +11NY 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q311.0James Harden makes 26-foot three point jumperLAC 76 – 73 NY · LAC 54% → 66% +12LAC 54% → 66%+12 pts
- Q33.1Immanuel Quickley makes 24-foot three pointerLAC 76 – 76 NY · NY 34% → 46% +12NY 34% → 46%+12 pts
- Q411:40Josh Hart makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)LAC 76 – 79 NY · NY 46% → 58% +13NY 46% → 58%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2.5
- LAC 60%
- Fair odds
- LAC -140
- NY +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 113.0 – 110.4 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +69 | −41 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | −12 | LAC crossed 3 time zones and NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +72 Elo | LAC 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30121.4 | Points scored | 103.330th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 103.32nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+12.2 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 102.828th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.1 | Defense rating | 102.82nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.4 | Pace | 100.424th of 30 |
| 23rd of 300–2 | Road vs home | 0–228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.