Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints35
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Dwight PowellRebounds10
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints20
- Brandon IngramAssists5
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–124
- Q414.1Kira Lewis Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1136–124
- Q414.1Richaun Holmes shooting foul136–123
- Q414.1Kira Lewis Jr. makes driving layup136–123
- Q428.1Richaun Holmes makes 2-foot layup (Jaden Hardy assists)136–121
- Q441.1Matt Ryan makes 4-foot layup (Kira Lewis Jr. assists)134–121
- Q453.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper loose ball foul134–119
- Q454.1Pelicans defensive team rebound134–119
- Q454.1Jaden Hardy misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot134–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:35Jonas Valanciunas makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)DAL 9 – 8 NO · NO 32% → 38% +6NO 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q15:48Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)DAL 14 – 10 NO · DAL 62% → 68% +6DAL 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q15:26Dyson Daniels makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Hawkins assists)DAL 14 – 13 NO · NO 32% → 38% +6NO 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q14:12Luka Doncic makes 26-foot step back jumpshotDAL 20 – 15 NO · DAL 64% → 70% +6DAL 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q13:13Naji Marshall makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)DAL 20 – 21 NO · NO 36% → 42% +7NO 36% → 42%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4
- DAL 66%
- Fair odds
- DAL -155
- NO +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 116.9 – 113.5 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +71 | −13 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +119 Elo | DAL 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.8 | Points scored | 107.429th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 114.019th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.9 | Margin | −6.626th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.3 | Offense rating | 105.727th of 30 |
| 24th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 112.220th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.1 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 1st of 303–1 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.