LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints35
- Terance MannAssists5
- Ivica ZubacRebounds13
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints32
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–111
- Q45.1Ivica Zubac vs. Nikola Jokic (Reggie Jackson gains possession)108–111
- Q45.1Nuggets defensive team rebound108–111
- Q47.1Paul George misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot108–111
- Q413.0James Harden enters the game for Terance Mann108–111
- Q413.0Norman Powell enters the game for Russell Westbrook108–111
- Q413.0Clippers Full timeout108–111
- Q413.0Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2108–111
- Q413.0Ivica Zubac enters the game for Norman Powell108–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:24Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)LAC 102 – 98 DEN · LAC 49% → 72% +22LAC 49% → 72%+22 pts
- Q42:25Nikola Jokic makes two point shotLAC 102 – 102 DEN · DEN 39% → 57% +18DEN 39% → 57%+18 pts
- Q41:37Aaron Gordon makes dunk (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)LAC 102 – 104 DEN · DEN 56% → 76% +20DEN 56% → 76%+20 pts
- Q41:10Reggie Jackson makes driving layupLAC 104 – 107 DEN · DEN 68% → 87% +19DEN 68% → 87%+19 pts
- Q415.1Paul George makes driving layupLAC 108 – 109 DEN · LAC 1% → 22% +21LAC 1% → 22%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8.5
- DEN 80%
- Fair odds
- DEN -376
- LAC +376 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 107.5 – 117.5 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +176 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +241 Elo | DEN 80.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 78.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 79.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 114.810th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 106.15th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +8.74th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 115.96th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 107.17th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.3 | Pace | 99.027th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–5 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+176 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.