Memphis Grizzlies at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints27
- Marcus SmartAssists7
- Bismack BiyomboRebounds12
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints26
- Paul GeorgeAssists7
- Russell WestbrookRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–101
- Q40.1Marcus Smart defensive rebound105–101
- Q42.1James Harden misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot105–101
- Q46.0Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2105–101
- Q46.0Bismack Biyombo enters the game for Luke Kennard104–101
- Q46.0David Roddy enters the game for Santi Aldama104–101
- Q46.0Norman Powell enters the game for Terance Mann104–101
- Q46.0Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2104–101
- Q46.0Paul George personal foul103–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:38Paul George makes 26-foot step back jumpshotMEM 84 – 84 LAC · LAC 38% → 55% +17LAC 38% → 55%+17 pts
- Q45:10Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)MEM 91 – 90 LAC · LAC 30% → 48% +18LAC 30% → 48%+18 pts
- Q42:22Desmond Bane makes 2-foot layup (Marcus Smart assists)MEM 97 – 95 LAC · MEM 47% → 65% +18MEM 47% → 65%+18 pts
- Q41:33James Harden makes 23-foot three point jumperMEM 98 – 98 LAC · LAC 21% → 52% +31LAC 21% → 52%+31 pts
- Q447.0David Roddy makes driving layup (Marcus Smart assists)MEM 101 – 98 LAC · MEM 64% → 88% +24MEM 64% → 88%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4
- LAC 66%
- Fair odds
- LAC -168
- MEM +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 111.5 – 115.5 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | +29 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +113 Elo | LAC 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 62.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30109.0 | Points scored | 115.411th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 112.614th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.6 | Margin | +2.812th of 30 |
| 29th of 30104.3 | Offense rating | 112.57th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 109.815th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.221st of 30 |
| 21st of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.